Fearless Forecast - 'Iron Man 2' Is Indestructible

This could be an historic weekend at the U.S. box office. It isn't so much that Iron Man 2 has a chance to break The Dark Knight's three-day record of $158 million (although that is a real possibility) but rather that such a huge percentage of the total business will go to one movie. There's a likelihood that Iron Man could make as much as $140 million or so more than the second place movie, Nightmare on Elm Street. Has there ever been that big a disparity? No. The Dark Knight holds that record, too, at $130.6 million, and if the early indicators hold out, Iron Man is headed for at least $150 million while Elm Street will be lucky to crack $13 million. So it could be a photo finish with the record books. In fact, because Iron Man will open on 4,380 screens and will have about 2,500 midnight shows and big IMAX revenue, there's plenty of reason to buy that the sequel could do as much as $160 million, and a lot of that has to do with the total lack of competition. The top ten movies at the box office on the weekdays are managing about $5 million between them, so where is the push back against Iron Man? It ain't. If Nightmare on Elm Street were, say, Date Night, it might not be such a one-sided affair, but we know horror movies fade away immediately; they devalue like used cars. This one will be no exception, so it would have probably lost 60 - 65% of its audience regardless. In other box office news, Alice in Wonderland has cracked the all-time top ten worldwide. That's two of the top ten in the past five months, three of the top ten since July, four of the top ten since July 2008, six of the top ten since May 2007, and seven of the top ten in the past four years. Only Titanic, Return of the King, and the first Harry Potter are still holding down spots in that celebrated group. The Top Five:
1 - Iron Man 2 ($154.5 million)
2 - Nightmare on Elm Street ($12 million)
3 - How to Train Your Dragon ($7 million)
4 - The Back-Up Plan ($4.5 million)
5 - Date Night ($3.5 million)