Fearless Forecast - Families Flock to 'Toy Story 3'

This summer has been a tough one to figure out. Almost nothing has performed as well as expected, and while it's easy to say the box office is down, we're still only three months removed from Alice in Wonderland, which has gone on to become the fifth-biggest movie ever worldwide, making a billion dollars faster than anything not named Avatar. Will Toy Story 3 be like Shrek Forever After and kind of softball the opening weekend but hang around for a long time or will family audiences eat it up like The Karate Kid? I'm guessing the latter, and in huge numbers. Toy Story may emerge as the best reviewed film of the summer and maybe the year, which is slightly different from being the best movie all year; it just means there won't be many bad reviews. That always seems to be the case with Pixar, and it's one of the very few movie brands in the world that sells tickets based on its name. That's because Pixar doesn't falter, and even when they did, Cars wasn't that bad. Plus, the name Toy Story is about as good as it gets. Fans from 8 - 80. So I look for it to be pretty stout, especially with the 3-D ticket prices, which are actually justifiable here as opposed to last summer's Up. But who knows, maybe Toy Story will only get $60 million in some odd and completely undeserved twist. In other news, Jonah Hex might tank. It cost upwards of $80 million, although I can't say if that's before or after re-shoots back in January. Still, it isn't likely to get a favorable start this weekend. It could do as well as maybe $16 million, but Warner Bros. isn't doing much to make its presence known. Very passive marketing, which could signal that the studio just doesn't want to throw good money after bad. Tough to blame WB if the movie turns out to be as bad as has been feared. But if Jonah is that bad, why release it during the summer at all? Karate Kid should continue to do well, though Toy Story will significantly hurt it in the second weekend. The remake will still cross $100 million by Sunday, so that's not bad. Last week's other new release, The A-Team will be off like a rushed WNBA three-point shot. The Top Five:
1 - Toy Story 3 ($89 million)
2 - The Karate Kid ($29.5 million)
3 - The A-Team ($13 million)
4 - Jonah Hex ($11 million)
5 - Shrek ($9.5 million)