Fearless Forecast - 'Greek' Won't Topple 'Shrek'

I look for the sluggish summer to continue at the box office this week. If you read our recent article about the weak Memorial Day weekend returns, then this shouldn't come as a big shock to you. The numbers are down and unless there's something on the horizon between now and Twilight that exceeds expectations, this summer will probably one produce a handful of hits by the usual summer definition of the word. Any prospective surprise is probably a week or two away - The A-Team, The Karate Kid, or Knight and Day later in the month - and Toy Story 3 was already going to do great business, so that's not really part of the equation. This week's crop only has the potential for one break-out, Get Him to the Greek, but I'm unconvinced that Russell Brand and Jonah Hill can carry a movie to great heights, financially speaking. True, The Hangover did it, but we don't get comedies like that very often. I've seen estimates around $20 million for Greek, but there are three reasons I'm shortening the reach on it a little bit. 1) What I mentioned above, namely that, as a pitch, it's not an out-of-the-box smash. 2) The box office in general is favoring established, safer movies at the moment. 3) It's Universal, and even if audiences aren't aware of the connection, for some reason, Universal can't even accidentally score a hit. The last time the studio made money was Fast and Furious 14 months ago. In its favor is the fact that it's a comedy, and there really hasn't been one yet this summer, unless you count Sex and the City, and why would you? Speaking of, I expect the girls to take a serious fall down the stairs this week, barely beating the similarly lethargic Prince of Persia. There are three other new releases I haven't even mentioned yet. The first is Killers, which isn't screening for the press because, as always, the studio is afraid of the reaction. So assume it sucks. But it ought to do OK because Katherine Heigl and Ashton Kutcher have had good opening weekends in the past two summers. Then there's Marmaduke, which I put in the category between a big smash hit family movie and Furry Vengeance, and Splice, although history is not really in the corner of the low-budget sci-fi thriller that tips to the brainy side, especially in fewer than 3,000 theaters. The Top Five:
1 - Shrek ($26 million)
2 - Get Him to the Greek ($18 million)
3 - Killers ($17.5 million)
4 - Sex and the City 2 ($14 million)
5 - Prince of Persia ($13.5 million)

Comments

[Nelson]

In order for Greek to make any money, it needs really good reviews, plain and simple. Based on what I have seen, that's not likely to happen

[Vince]

Greek does have some solid reviews, but they aren't as glowing as they were for The Hangover . Again, the former movie is a bit of a tough sell- it's a spin-off of a film that did solid-but-not-extraordinary business, starring two relatively unproven stars, plus it has the "rock & Roll/music comedy" angle, which is a genre that's been loaded with bombs. Still, people are dying for a raunchy comedy, and this one seems to fit the bill.