Fearless Forecast - 'Inception' is Unleashed

On Wednesday, The Sorcerer's Apprentice started what looks like a pretty grim second stanza for producer Jerry Bruckheimer this summer. Prince of Persia was not a hit in the US, and worldwide, $325 million seems like a lot of money, but it cost at least that much when you add in the distribution and marketing. Sorcerer started pretty slow: $3.7 million yesterday and that puts the five-day weekend estimate around $30 million, if you're feeling generous. The rule of thumb this summer has been not to feel generous, since only four or five movies have topped their projections for opening weekend and only one - Toy Story 3 - has been a true runaway success. The budget for this one is hinted in the $150 million range, so it won't make money for Bruckheimer, either. But then there's Inception. Our review is coming Friday, of course, but I can tell you that there have probably only been a handful of films in studio history that are this audacious. With a $200 million price tag, no true merchandising angle, a near two-and-a-half hour running time, and a convoluted structure that actually adds more layers of complexity as it goes, Inception is one of the least likely summer blockbusters, well, ever. But the gamble should pay off, though perhaps not as wildly as did Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight. The film might do half as well as the second Batman movie on opening weekend, maybe a little less, and I would think that overall, doing half as well as The Dark Knight would make Warner Bros. happy. Like Fox last year with Avatar, this is one of those rare cases where there is actually more at stake than a 300% ROI. Less a heat check for Nolan, Inception could - I caution, could - lead the way for smarter, darker, more subtle original Hollywood stories if it makes a good chunk of change. All told, there's probably no way it gets to $800 million worldwide, but if audiences respond well enough, then there might be a weaker insistence on retreads, sequels, and all the rest for a while. But audiences have to crave it first. And then studios will have to go in with scalpels and cut the budgets on these original movies down because obviously, the model can't sustain itself indefinitely if it pushes $300 - $400 million out the door just to get a movie made and publicized. Despicable Me, since it's not in direct competition with either new release, will build on its surprisingly good opening weekend and may only drop about 40%. It should hit $100 million overall either way, and that's great news for Universal. It could do another $100 million by the time it's through, since there's a pretty open road for it through the rest of its theatrical life. Cats and Dogs? Not sure that's going to do all that much. The Top Five:
1 - Inception ($74 million)
2 - Despicable Me ($32 million)
3 - The Sorcerer's Apprentice ($21 million, $27 million five-day)
4 - Eclipse ($16 million)
5 - Predators ($11 million)

Comments

[Lisa]

Well, that seems optimistic ($74 mill) but here's hoping you are right. The only way out of getting all the comic book movies, sequels and remakes is if people actually go SEE original films like Inception.

[BlueWingX]

I really don't know what to make of Inception. Nothing about the trailers has screamed "I need to see this movie.", none of my friends or family are all that interested in it. We all seem to share the same opinion of "We'll catch on DVD." Yet, on the internet, people everywhere are already talking about Inception like it's the greatest movie of the past 10 years, and it's going to save Hollywood, etc. I guess I just don't see what the hype is all about.

[rk]

God I hope they leave Toy Story alone, they closed it up perfectly, and a 4th would ruin everything.

[rk]

Wow, posted on the wrong story, sorry :P