Box Office - 'Inception' Earns $21 Million on Friday

I don't know any more than you do, but I had a hunch that Inception would hit the ground running and put up pretty good numbers this weekend. What are "pretty good" numbers? I thought $75 million seemed about right, though admittedly, it's higher than most projections for the film. My reasoning going into Thursday's Fearless Forecast was that there's an intangible: Christopher Nolan. Directors, as a general rule, don't move tickets. But a handful can, and Nolan has a built-in audience that will respond where, say, a Joel Schumacher wouldn't have that kind of good fortune. And they turned up on Friday, giving Inception a $21.3 million opening day. That includes the midnight showings - not a full schedule, by the way - which accounted for almost $4 million. So the weekend, I'm saying, will hit into the $60 millions, not as high as I pushed on Thursday but more than the $55 million you'll see across the internet following Friday's results. I expect word-of-mouth and repeat business to be very strong in the next two days, and the $55 million estimate almost certainly hints at a slower Saturday than Friday. I don't see that happening at all. The Sorcerer's Apprentice will be an even bigger failure for Disney and Jerry Bruckheimer than Prince of Persia; in three days, it's only made $12 million, with an anemic $5 million Friday. Curiously, the same analysis that puts Inception at 39% of its weekend gross on Friday has Apprentice making just about 27% of its three-day total on Friday, for a $25 million five-day start. Does that make sense to you? The movie people want to see will generate significantly less (as a percentage) over the next two days as the outright bomb? Even if that $25 million is about right - and I think it probably is - you can see why the $55 million for Inception just seems a little low at this stage. Apprentice didn't even crack the top three on Friday, trailing Despicable Me (a healthy $11.5 million, and roughly $30 million for the weekend) and Eclipse (another $5 million, and closing in on $260 million total). Toy Story 3 made another $3.5 million, good enough for fifth place and $355 million on the big board. That's almost $100 million away from Shrek 2 for the all-time animation record, but $400 million is possible with Pixar's biggest movie ever.

Comments

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