Box Office - 'Inception' Dreams Up $60 Million

Depending on which estimate you read, Inception made anywhere from $60 - $63 million this weekend, but since it's an estimate and very few Sunday tickets have been sold, I'm going to point it north. Because of its international cast and director Christopher Nolan's worldwide reputation, it should gobble up plenty of coin overseas, too, but it doesn't look like it's going to be one of the summer's top three films. To do that, Inception would need to essentially quintuple its opening weekend numbers. Avatar did that, The Hangover did it, but it's not common to see a blockbuster make five times what it draws in the first weekend, and in fact, on the average, the first three days account for about 30% of a movie's total domestic gross. So, give this one the low-$200s if you want, but it would really need a big August to do much more than that. However, Warner Bros. would be absolutely thrilled with that kind of performance. A $160 million movie with a half-dozen important characters and four simultaneous, interlocking levels of action is not something you see...well, ever, so the studio knew going in this wouldn't do Dark Knight money, but it should still be profitable, although we won't know for sure until we see some of the foreign revenue. It could have a big hold next weekend, though, depending on peoples' interest in Salt, so it could conceivably lose 35% of this weekend's numbers and that might help push it a little further into the $200 millions. On the other end of the spectrum is The Sorcerer's Apprentice, a more public failure than normal, because it's Disney and Jerry Bruckheimer and because even when his career had been in the tank before, Nicolas Cage could always count on an average studio movie to make money. Not here, not now. Same sticker price as Inception - $160 million - and a big ad budget, too, but it only dialed up $17 million from Friday - Sunday, and because it was released on Wednesday to grease the rails a bit before Inception came out, throw in another $7 million or so. Yeah, a Bruckheimer/Nic Cage movie on what has been one of the biggest summer weekends over the past few years, and it's made about $5 million a day. At no time was this the number one movie in the country. And, since we're on the subject, how could this cost as much as Inception? There's only four actors in the damn thing and it has fewer effects and locations than that movie, too. Despicable Me didn't surrender much of an audience this week, dropping only 42% from last weekend. Considering it overperformed a week ago, that number is even more auspicious: The projections going into last weekend were $35 - $40 million in most places, and it brought in $32 million the second time around for Universal. Big hit, I think. Well, I know, actually, because that whole deal about 30% of your box office coming on opening weekend won't apply here; Despicable Me will get to that number in about 10 days, max. It's already at $118 million after a very good weekeday run, and that should be the case for the next couple weeks. The end of the road is more visible for The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, which lost nearly 60% of its audience in weekend three. Sure, it's made $265 million, but with some of that being IMAX money and not traditional ticket prices, it appears that, ticket-for-ticket, this might do less business than New Moon. Not significantly less, mind you, just not quite as much. $300 million is still a good benchmark, but I wouldn't expect anything much over $310 million at this stage. Meanwhile, Toy Story 3 sits $37 million away from $400 million, and it's only been in theaters a month. The international total is $585 million, so it still has some work to do overseas, being a $200 million flick and all, but I'm sure it will get there; Pixar plays everywhere. But yes, $400 is very possible for this one, because it's sure to make another $20 million in the next two weeks. And I don't think anything the rest of the year gets within $100 million of it, so the battle is for second place moving forward. The Top Five:
1 - Inception ($60 million)
2 - Despicable Me ($32 million)
3 - The Sorcerer's Apprentice ($17 million, $24 million five-day)
4 - Eclipse ($13 million)
5 - Toy Story 3 ($11 million)

Comments

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I suppose this is the beginning of the end of Bruckheimer style action in much the same way he brought the end to that eighties style action. Who knew that Emmerich was right when he said that 2012 would be his last blow 'em up. (Also by how even Inception being able to succeed it shouldn't be too hard to figure what the next popular style is)

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