Box Office - 'Inception' Leads 'Salt' On Friday

It could be a close race at the top this weekend, but it looks like Inception will rule for another week, starting this session with evidence of less than a 40% drop from last week. Its Friday performance was just enough to beat Salt, the new Angelina Jolie movie, but even with its second-place beginning, Salt might make more money than earlier projections indicated. First, let's deal with Inception. Most movies only hold 65% of their opening weekend audience if there's excellent word of mouth, and that was always going to be the case here. Expect a touch more business on Saturday and a little less than Friday when Sunday rolls around, and Inception should see another $40 million weekend. So it'll earn back the production budget by next weekend, and shouldn't have much trouble actually turning a profit overall, but it won't ever be a movie that makes $750 million around the world, I don't think. Incidentally, there's a good chance it wins next weekend, too, so file that away. As for Salt, Jolie is one of the very few women who can fill seats. That's all on the audience, by the way; they just don't buy Charlize Theron in quantities as large as Angelina or Julia Roberts or Sandra Bullock. And when it comes to action films, Jolie has almost no competition from her gender. She's had ten years of action movies like Tomb Raider, Wanted, and Mr. and Mrs. Smith, and just those three movies give her the edge over every other actress trying to make it in the genre. Salt started with $12.7 million, about half a million below Inception, and while I don't necessarily see it following the path of Inception over the next two days, Salt is almost guaranteed to make about $35 million. All it has to do is make a bit more money today than yesterday and the percentages will take care of the rest. That's a very healthy opening for any movie 1) that isn't part of a series, 2) faces a big challenge from another film, and 3) stars a woman. Despicable Me will have another $20 million weekend, an excellent hold, even for animation, which tends to perform better in subsequent weeks than live-action. So far, the Universal flick has made $145 million, so put this over $160 million by the end of the frame, enough to strongly consider this as a $200 million opportunity. It will get to $180 million by the end of next weekend, and is the biggest hit Universal has had, literally, since three years ago with The Bourne Ultimatum.