Box Office - 'Eclipse' Starts the Inevitable Slow Down

Proving that it's very hard for franchises to change their stripes, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse is following the path set by its predecessors at the box office: A lot of money upfront, and dying off faster than a vampire in the sun. I mean, you know it's bad when Yahoo! says the movie "falls sharply" in its headline. On Wednesday, the film opened with $68.5 million. That's a big debut, especially for a Wednesday, where it's the biggest debut. We all expected a drop on Thursday, although I was a bit surprised in was nearly 65%; I was figuring somewhere in the high 50s. But the film didn't recover from that, staying in that ballpark on Friday, which kind of meant it wasn't going to do too much more on Saturday, and then Sunday it would be in decline again. So here's where we are: $68.5 million on Wednesday, and $69 million from Friday - Sunday. You can see the trend, I'm sure. All told, Eclipse has made $161 million in five days, and will probably settle in comfortably at $173 - $175 million for the six-day total. That's still massive, especially since this is the most affordable mega-blockbuster going, but it kind of confirms that the series isn't growing very much if at all, and you've got to think that if it gets to $300 million, it won't get too far beyond it. Of course, Summit doesn't care about that. The movie has also made about $100 million overseas, meaning in five days, it's taken in about a quarter billion dollars worldwide, which more than covers the cost of everything, from production to marketing. That might be the growth market, actually, if there is one. Last year, New Moon earned $142 million in its first weekend, and followed it up with only $42 million, a 70% slide. The weekend after that, it only made $15 million. Then nothing over $8 million for the rest of the run. That's how you start with $142 million and never get to the magic 300 plateau. Eclipse, being a much better film and having more immediate viewing opportunities because it's a summer movie, as well as the largest release in movie history (4,416 screens) may have better weekday numbers at the start and that could help, but a steep drop-off awaits this over the next two weeks or so. The Last Airbender has done OK, especially considering the savage steel-cage beating it's taking from critics. Add a $16 million Thursday to the film's $41.6 million estimate for the traditional three-day weekend, and the movie's looking at a pretty robust six-day start in the low- to mid- 60s. Night Shyamalan's film will have to depend on foreign box office to make money, and I think it would actually play better in some territories, anyway, because of the movie's mystical nature. But with an estimated production cost in the $85 million range, Airbender will certainly make that back in short order, although it will take some time to be profitable. Toy Story 3 made another $30 million from Friday - Sunday, meaning it's a few million shy of $300 million after three weekends. That won't take long. I think it's still got plenty in the tank to do another $50 million, more than enough to be the year's reigning box office champ...unless Inception starts like a house of fire. Here are the three-day numbers, since we don't have Monday's estimate yet, and where we need to, we'll note the additional days: The Top Five:
1 - Eclipse ($68.5 million, $161 million Wednesday - Sunday)
2 - Last Airbender ($41 million, $57 million Thursday - Sunday)
3 - Toy Story ($30.1 million)
4 - Grown Ups ($18.5 million)
5 - Knight and Day ($9.9 million)

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