Fearless Forecast - Will Ferrell Takes Down 'Inception'

I imagine Inception will finally be dethroned this weekend, but three weeks on top and $200 million in the US so far is an excellent showing for a two-hour-plus movie with as much going on as Christopher Nolan's latest. It's still going to make good money for a few more weeks, but it's done its worst. The most likely successor to the throne is The Other Guys with Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg. Ferrell's comedies are slipping, and I don't think that refers to films like Land of the Lost. Fans know the difference, it seems, and the Adam McKay-directed films - Talladega Nights and Step Brothers after the breakout success of Anchorman - both posted $100 million summers. Talladega nearly did $150 million four years back. The Other Guys won't see that much money and it may see $100 million, but it should get to $75 million or more, if this weekend goes according to plan. High-mid-20s seems to be the consensus, and with Dinner for Schmucks doing about that and Ferrell's fans, again, knowing what a "real" Will Ferrell movie is, I think that number sounds about right for a movie in just over 3,000 theaters this weekend. Anywhere from $22 - $27 million, and we'll split the difference for our own projection. That'll be enough to handle Inception, which should dip below $20 million this weekend, though it should compete for second place. The other potential second-place finisher is Step Up 3D. The theater count is slightly lower, but the 3-D ticket prices are, of course, quite a bit higher. The first two averaged $19 million, and I see no reason this should do a lot worse than that, though I think it's going to drop a touch. The Top Five:
1 - The Other Guys ($25 million)
2 - Inception ($19.5 million)
3 - Step Up ($17.5 million)
4 - Dinner for Schmucks ($14 million)
5 - Salt ($11 million)

Comments

[W]

1 - The Other Guys - ($28 million)
2 - Inception - ($20 million)
3 - Step Up - ($18 million)
4 - Dinner for Schmucks ($13 million)
5 - Salt - ($10 million)

I had way too high of hopes for Cats and Dogs...didn't I? Bummer.

[Anonymous]

I thought the consensus for The Other Guys was somewhere in the 30s.