Fearless Forecast: 'Machete' Slices 'Em Up

Playing off the hotly debated immigration story, particularly in the southwest, where four of the nation's largest cities are directly impacted by federal and state tugs-of-war, Machete is, if nothing else, being released at about the right time. Ideally, this would have hit maybe six to eight weeks ago, but immigration is still a big headline and it's the subplot of Machete, so the interest will likely be pretty high in those large cities - Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston - as well as slightly smaller urban areas throughout the region. Let's also not forget that R-rated action just scored a major win with The Expendables, so that could play into this film's success, too. I'll stop just short of $20 million for Machete, even though its potential audience is pretty broad (but almost exclusively male). That would be almost as much as Grindhouse ever made in the US, and at a fraction of the cost. There are two other major releases this weekend, odd for Labor Day. The first is The American with George Clooney, which, even more oddly, opened on Wednesday. I don't understand the thinking over at Focus, which netted about $1.7 million yesterday. That will likely drop below $1 million today, so how big was that head start, really? Anyway, look for that to maybe get to a little under $15 million when the five-day run is considered. Going the Distance is another romantic comedy that incorporates a song title (My Best Friend's Girl, Just Like Heaven, Sweet Home Alabama, The Sweetest Thing), and that's rarely a good sign. It was also moved from a more competitive weekend to Labor Day, which is also a bad sign. The bad reviews speak for themselves. Don't expect a lot out of this one. The Top Five:
1 - Machete ($19 million)
2 - Going the Distance ($12.5 million)
3 - Takers ($12 million)
4 - The American ($10 million, $13 million five-day total)
5 - The Last Exorcism ($9 million)