Fearless Forecast: Can Eastwood Strikeout a Judge, The LAPD & Katniss?

The film industry got out of the slump last weekend with the release of the fifth Resident Evil flick.  The film brought in $21 million, though not a lot money to break even, the film showed the industry that theater going isn’t dead but that people needed a breather.  Hell, a box-office record was broken with The Master.  But has the American theatergoer caught their breath or are they sitting this one out to wait for next week?

 

Dredd 3D has a lot riding on it.  One, the original film was and still is regarded as one of the worst films ever made, two, the film is based on a beloved comic book series and with the way comic book movies have been performing lately, Dredd needs to good or at least average.  The marketing for the film has been phenomenal showcasing the star of the film.  No, not Karl Urban, but the slow motion.  Slow motion triggers the brain into thinking it’s in fight mode, sending adrenaline all through out the body. 

Doesn’t this mean this film is in 4D or 5D?  It would be cool to feel like you’re apart of the action.  Karl Urban is definitely not a box-office draw, just a lucky actor who's been in huge box-office successes.  His starrer, Pathfinder, performed poorly back in 2007 placing sixth and earned a mere $5 million.  The director of Dredd, Pete Travis’ first film, Vantage Point, performed rather well in February of 2008, earning $22.8 million. 

 

End of Watch looks like Police POV from TruTv but doped up on speed.  My first impression of the film, based on the initial trailer, it looks like crap.  However, the reviews coming out have swayed me slightly.  I’m much more interested with how this film will perform critically than financially.  The film is written and directed by David Ayer who is responsible for writing Training Day and helming Harsh Times and Harsh Times.  He has a pretty solid resume with one or two poorly received films. 

Harsh Times performed poorly, debuting in thirteenth place back in November of 2006.  Training Day, possibly his best written work, managed to hold out the number one for the first two weekends of October back in 2001. 

 

House at the End of the Street is another horror film, the third in the last month or so.  This film stars Jennifer Lawrence from Winter’s Bone and Hunger Games fame.  Matter of fact, that is the only thing going for it.  It's rated PG-13 to gather the youth market and Lawrence is supposed to bring in The Hunger Games crowd.  The ads are basically screaming, “you loved her in Hunger Games, check her out in this piece of shit shelved for X amount of years.”  That’s just poor.  I don’t see this one making it into the top 3 but will place fourth or fifth. 

 

Trouble with the Curve is Clint Eastwood’s first film since his supposed retirement after Gran Torino.  This film screams “Oscar Nomination for all” with Amy Adams, John Goodman and, of course, Eastwood himself.  Gran Torino was his perfect send off film and Trouble with the Curve may beat that.  I've heard stellar things so far.  Torino opened small back in late 2008 but when the film was given a wider release, the film jumped from 14^th place to first.  This film may have the edge to pull into first place. 

 

The Master broke Moonrise Kingdom's record from earlier this year and with a wider release this week, it sure will break into the top ten.  I hear nothing but great things about this film, especially from Amy Adams (I’m sensing a trend here).  My guess is that it will place eighth. 

The First Five

1. Trouble with The Curve $23.1 M

2. Dredd 3D $17.9 M

3. Resident Evil: Retribution $12.1

4. The House at the End of the Street $8.4 M

5. End of Watch $7.025 M

8.  The Master $2.312 M