Box Office - Massive Start for 'Toy Story 3'

Toy Story 3 might not get the top weekend of 2010, but it could be the top movie of the year. A $41 million opening day, which should indicate at least $50 million on Saturday and a weekend number north of $115 million, is the first step for a film that now seems destined to get to the summer movie milestone of $300 million in a hurry.

Pixar movies always hold up, a combination of their incredibly wide appeal and repeat viewing. In general, anything that does more than a multiplier of three - meaning it earns more than three times its opening weekend number over its theatrical run - is a pretty successful release. Every Pixar movie has done that, so we're comfortable assuming this movie should nearly triple this weekend's performance. I won't go all in and declare that it's making $345 million or more, just because this weekend is so much bigger than expectations, but the odds are in its favor. Being the best of the summer movies helps, too. Iron Man 2 got off to a similarly large start, but couldn't hold up (it won't hit a multiplier of three, for instance), and Shrek Forever After started soft but has held up over the last month. This movie should combine the best of both of those examples, hitting $200 million in about another week or so.

Click to read more ...

Box Office - 'Karate Kid' Tops $50 Million

When a movie doubles its expected box office performance, it's a pretty good sign that it will have legs. The Hangover did it 53 weeks ago, and now The Karate Kid has opened up a can of whoop ass, generating the third best debut of the summer with $56 million in the last three days.

It started on Friday with just under $19 million, and by that point, it was already clear that it would be The A-Team, which was slightly off predictions, but still managed to do OK. However, it was the other 80s reboot, starring Jackie Chan and Jaden Smith (and produced by Jaden's dad, Will) that became the first unpredictable out of the box smash of the summer. We aimed slightly below $30 million, which given the theater counts and the strong run for Shrek Forever After seemed like a good ballpark. But it appears that just as many parents were looking forward to this one as their kids, and because the movie's pretty good (or at least isn't terrible), it ought to play well for several weeks, even if Toy Story 3 is only seven days away. By the end of next weekend, Karate Kid should top $100 million, something that has eluded Robin Hood, Sex and the City 2, and Prince of Persia, despite much more marketing and more recognizable stars.

Click to read more ...

Box Office - 'Karate Kid' Destroys 'A-Team' on Friday

For the first time all summer, a movie has outperformed its projections at the box office, even if it is for just one day. However, based on the positive vibes it's received from critics in a lot of cases and how well it hits the target for family audiences, I don't expect Friday to be the anomaly.

The Karate Kid is pacing at about 200% its industry estimates for the weekend after a Friday take of $19 million. That's the best day of the season for any movie not named Shrek Forever After or Iron Man 2, and since family movies tend to do better on Saturdays because there are more opportunities to see them, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Karate Kid could manage $50 - $55 million this weekend. We've been waiting for a non-tentpole film to establish itself as one of the big deals of summer, and it's finally happened. How well the movie will play with Toy Story 3 opening seven days later remains to be seen, but at least The Karate Kid will make more than people thought it would, and that's the only movie this summer you can say that about.

Click to read more ...

Movie Review - 'The A-Team'

The A-Team Starring Liam Neeson, Bradley Cooper, and Jessica Biel Directed by Joe Carnahan Rated PG-13

It's fascinating to watch professional pool players work around a table. Usually, it's not the shot they make that's impressive but the one they set up next, the cue ball rolling to a stop exactly where it needs to be. Just like it was planned. In The A-Team, the cue ball is always perfectly placed, setting up the next move in an intricate strategy devised by Col. Hannibal Smith (Liam Neeson). That any of these occurrences happens as it's designed is absurd. That all of them do could only happen in the movies. And that's really the crux of The A-Team. If you dig spending $20 for a couple movie tickets for sheer escapism that you don't want to think about (and knowing that if you do, the illusion is ruined), this film could be pretty fun. If you like a little more substance - unless, to you, substance is weighed in explosions - then this could be a disappointment. But no matter which side of that fence you're on, it's unlikely that you'll consider this a great action movie or an awful waste of time. For starters, director Joe Carnahan moves the film along pretty quickly; a lot is packed into the film's two hours. Within that structure, there are almost a half-dozen nifty action scenes, which curiously, does not include the film's expensive looking climax. The movie makes general sense, but very few of the specifics ever do. Sure, it's easy to follow that a group of ex-Rangers who are now on the run from the feds might work to secure their own freedom by helping another branch of the government. But extend that out a little bit and include stolen plates to print US currency, an anonymous and halfway incompetent CIA operative (Patrick Wilson), and a female marshal (Jessica Biel) whose actual authority is never really established and primarily exists as an escape valve in the story, since she used to carry on with one of the ex- Rangers. There are other factors, too, but it's hard to keep track of how they all fit together. Hannibal Smith must have a cheat sheet, though, because he sidesteps certain death twice in a week (including being locked in a crematorium), and there's still three other guys to consider. Smith has to concoct a scheme to break Templeton "Faceman" Peck (Bradley Cooper), B.A. Baracus (Quinton Jackson), and "Howling Mad" Murdock (Sharlto Copley) out of their own penal predicaments from a remote location with next to no resources. And, of course, it comes off with out a hitch.

Click to read more ...

Fearless Forecast - Plan Comes Together for 'A-Team'

It won't be a weekend we remember for all time or anything, but the box office should finally recover from a month of bad returns, thanks to two movies that have modest aspirations. The A-Team and The Karate Kid are rockin' out the 1984 and audiences should turn up for both films. Not in huge numbers in either case, but it's not as though these movies cost $200 million (*cough* Prince of Persia).

I have a hunch The A-Team will draw more attendance. Shrek Forever After still has a pretty good heartbeat and that might slow family business for The Karate Kid a little bit. Reviews won't matter in either case; both films have strong brand recognition and plenty of theaters to gobble up cash. Why A-Team has the edge, I think, is because outside of Iron Man 2's first couple of days, everything this summer has been a little leaden at the box office. It probably isn't going to soar to $50 million or anything, but it should be on pace to come in around $100 million for its entire run after the first three days. But that's when the reviews will matter, or more specifically, when the consensus opinion matters. If the movie's atrocious, the second weekend will plummet, and if that happens, a $30- $35 million opening won't get it past $80 million or so.

Click to read more ...