Box Office - A Bad Start for 'Invictus'

Before we discuss the weekend's box office winner, let's talk about its biggest loser: Invictus. The Clint Eastwood-directed inspirational sports biopic did come in third, which you might look at and think that's OK. But that per-screen average - around $4,300 - is less than The Blind Side, an inspirational sports biopic that's in its fourth week of release.

Per-screen numbers are crucial, especially for new movies. And that's not a very good average to have. So I think Invictus, while it may not show a big drop next weekend, is probably not going to do much more than $50 million, even if it's nominated for and wins a bunch of Oscars. As for the movie that took the prize, Disney's The Princess and the Frog earned $25 million, which is a fine start, but it's nothing special. What remains to be seen is how well the film holds over the holidays, and whether or not that gives a restructured Disney hope to remain committed to hand-drawn animation. It's cheaper than the Pixar movies (by about half), so does that mean it only has to do half as well?

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Box Office - 'Blind Side' Finally Wins Weekend

The terrific run for The Blind Side continued at the box office as it staked its first claim to number one in its third weekend of release. The film is another surprise hit for Warner Bros. (see The Hangover), and has already grossed $129 million, a tremendous number given that its opening weekend was under $35 million. It earned another $20 million this weekend to easily win the frame.

New Moon dropped to second place, earning $15.7 million, and its fortunes are about to stall in the US. However, with global ticket sales of over $570 million, more than ten times the production budget. As we discussed yesterday, only one movie that earned more than $100 million in its first weekend failed to hit $300 million. New Moon is now about $45 million away from that milestone, and it could get there, but it won't be by much. New releases were pretty uninspiring in their performances, with Brothers leading the way with only $9.7 million. Armored finished in sixth place, with a little over $6.5 million. Up in the Air, in very, very limited release, still earned $1.8 million, good enough for 13th place.

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Box Office - A Massive Global Debut for '2012'

It isn't just American audiences that love watching the end of the world: 2012 grossed an estimated $220 million this weekend worldwide, including a $65 million start in the US. That's good enough to be in the top 40 for the year in domestic dollars (already) and in the top 10 around the globe. On the international front, it has already outgrossed District 9, Watchmen, and Public Enemies...in three days. It's the ninth best worldwide debut in history.

That gives Sony one of the biggest hits of the year, and surprisingly enough, the studio didn't already have one. Coming into the weekend, its biggest film of 2009 was Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which isn't even among the top ten movies this year. That'll change now. There's a real chance for 2012 to break the bank to the tune of over $200 million in America, thanks to a bonus weekend at Thanksgiving, where most films won't see much of a slide from the previous frame. So by then, $150 million should be in the cards, with still a couple active weeks left.

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Box Office - '2012' Explodes for $24 Million Friday

It was a bigger-than-expected Friday for 2012, which should easily sail past our $50 million projection for the weekend. The last movie to do this kind of business on its opening day was Harry Potter, so the $24 million the disaster movie earned yesterday sets it up quite nicely for a great big haul over the next few days and on into December.

More than likely, 2012 will hit $60 million or more, demolishing - coincidentally enough - everything in its path. If the standard rule of thumb plays out here and the opening weekend reflects about 1/3 of the overall domestic box office, then 2012 should approach $200 million by the time it's all said and done. In any case, it should be well over $100 million by the end of next weekend, and probably near $150 million or so after the Thanksgiving holiday.

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Box Office - 'Precious' Sets Limited Release Record

The biggest news at the box office this weekend was the smallest movie. Taking a page out of the book of Paranormal Activity, the Oscar-hyped Precious set a theatrical record, averaging a whopping $100,000 per theater in its 18 locations. That's twice as much as Paranormal managed in its most productive per-screen weekend. And with no other Best Picture candidate in theaters for a month, this is just the beginning of a very healthy run for Precious. Its $1.8 million debut is the most money ever for a movie in so few theaters.

The official winner this weekend is A Christmas Carol. It should have done at least 20% better. A $31 million weekend is decent, and as we mentioned yesterday, it should do well between now and the end of the year because there's not much left for families, and it's so well known around the world that Disney will still make some cash. Could it have been released later in the month? Yeah, maybe, but as one of our astute readers pointed out in Saturday's box office discussion, it probably wouldn't have had a better start any other weekend through the end of the year. In Disney's corporate world view, though, it will be a boost to the company's fourth quarter. Isn't that what it's all about?

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