Box Office - 'Avatar' Does It Again

It's a four-day weekend because of the Martin Luther King holiday, so these weekend estimates might change. What won't change is another win for Avatar. After dropping Friday to The Book of Eli, James Cameron reclaimed the weekend lead on Saturday with $17.3 million. Through Sunday, the film has earned $491 million and half a billion is possible on Monday, but I'm still holding to my Tuesday prediction there.

This was, for the purposes of history, the first weekend that Avatar failed to make $20 million on any day, and certainly, $41 million is the lowest Friday - Sunday earnings the movie has seen, but it's still a record this deep into a run, and while it was behind The Dark Knight in terms of how fast it hit $450 million, it will blow the record for $500 million out of the water, accomplishing the feat in 32 or 33 days as opposed to 47 for Batman. Avatar should pace itself to topple Dark Knight's $535 million in another seven days, eight or nine if it really cools off.

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Box Office - 'Eli' Narrowly Beats 'Avatar' on Friday

There are two stories at the box office this morning. The first is the surprising start for The Lovely Bones, which may wind up doing $20 million this weekend, which is probably double most industry expectations. The second is The Book of Eli, which charged out of the gates to take down Avatar. Again, that's just for one day; James Cameron is still a better bet to win the weekend based on the consistency of his film from the moment it was released.

Eli hit $11.7 million on Friday, which is indeed an excellent start. It's dangerous to just triple that number and say it will make $36 million through the weekend, plus several million more on Monday, because that first Saturday for any movie is always a big indicator. Last week, for instance, Daybreakers would have made $18 million by that logic (it did $15 million). But mid-$30s seems like a good ceiling for the four-day holiday weekend. That, too, is better than projections, a sign that 2010 may repeat 2009's box office windfall.

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Movie Review - 'The Lovely Bones'

The Lovely Bones Starring Saoirse Ronan, Mark Wahlberg, Rachel Weisz, and Stanly Tucci Directed by Peter Jackson Rated PG-13

The Lovely Bones is a grand, grandiose failure. Peter Jackson has taken the popular bestseller by Alice Sebold, dressed it up in a dreamscape, and presents it as one very pretty but emotionally empty package. Where did it go wrong? It's hard to pinpoint one thing specifically. Rather, it's more accurate (but admittedly no more satisfying) to say that very few elements of the production stick with you in a good way, and many of them, from performances to the music, have no impact at all. There is also the very real consideration that sometimes movies just don't work as well as their parts. This is the second time in a month that a prohibitive awards favorite has sunk on screen. Nine assembled the best cast of the year, had strong source material, a director that knows the ropes of the musical genre, and outside of 15 - 20 minutes, the film is curiously catatonic. It is worse in this case because those 15 minutes are even harder to spot. The Lovely Bones finds no benefit from Jackson's direction, which history might one day define as overwrought. There's very little advantage gained by having Rachel Weisz and Susan Sarandon in the cast, leaving most of the work on the shoulders of Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and young Saoirse Ronan.

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Fearless Forecast - 'Avatar' Approaches $500 Million

It won't quite get to half a billion dollars this weekend, but Avatar will hit that mark next week, probably Tuesday or Wednesday. Keep in mind, I'm giving it a fifth win at the box office and only dropping its grab about 25% from last week, so reaching the milestone any sooner would be even more exceptional than the $80 million it made in its third week.

When will The Dark Knight fall? Oh, I'd say by the end of the month. Is Titanic still safe? Tough to say. Avatar is still exploding on the weekends even though its weekday numbers have cooled off every week. But we know that it will hit $500 very soon and should get to $550 million by no later than mid-February. Then it's a race against time, because Alice in Wonderland gobbles up the IMAX screens on March 5th, Fox will have opened its next hopeful blockbuster (Percy Jackson) on the 12th, and so on. Ultimately, it depends on how much the movie is still making by the time the Oscars roll around on March 7th. If it's no longer doing $1 million a day and it doesn't win the major awards, Fox will probably slash the number of theaters. That won't make history any easier to grasp. If things go its way - because, let's face it, James Cameron could use some good fortune, right? - then The King of the World might be King of the Hill again.

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Peter Jackson Revving Up 'Mortal Engines'?

I've seen The Lovely Bones, and I have a feeling Peter Jackson can't wait to dive into new projects. Kind of underwhelming, that. We know there's The Hobbit (and more people would rather hear about that, anyway) and Tintin, and Jackson has hinted at a few other films that would have to happen several years in the future.

Now it's rumored that Jackson is bringing the Mortal Engines fantasy novels to a boil for a run at the big screen. The New Zealand edition of Stuff tried to get confirmation from Jackson's spokesquad, and the word came back that "any comment should come from Peter." Not a denial, certainly, but not much of anything else, either.

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