The Biggest Flops of 2008

We all know 2008 was a bad year economically. You don't have to look very far or watch the news for very long to see the repercussions of the worst financial and employment market in at least 30 years, and possibly 80 years.

For the most part, movies retained their success seen in previous years. Why is that? It's still a relatively cheap night out, even if you're talking about a family of four hitting a matinee. It's also one of the few things you can't get anywhere else. You don't have to eat out at a restaurant, you can watch the baseball games on TV. But if you wanted to see The Dark Knight, that meant for most of you paying $10 or so to watch it in theaters this summer. Another reason for the success of films overall is that the studios have such specific marketing for them now that they target the people most likely to see that film over another. That can't be the only measuring stick, and in fact, quality was a big factor this year. At least six of the top ten films of the year got great reviews, and the only movie that wasn't critically acclaimed that really even needed good press was Hancock. The others - Indy Jones, Madagascar, and Twilight - all had built-in fan bases, and you could really only argue that Twilight was a bad movie, although I'm not sure I'd go that far. The point is, audiences responded to really good films this year and avoided some junk. But how do we know what's a hit? It's not as easy as just making more money than your movie cost. These are never completely isolated things. A studio or producer could make $40 million on one movie but lose $60 million on another, or a movie with an A-list star and A-list director could have to split a lot of the profits because of contractual incentives, or the marketing could be irresponsibly pricy. A good example of weird movie math came this summer when Jeff Rubinov - whose studio, Warner Bros., is the big winner in 2008 - said that the company was a little disappointed in the performance of Get Smart. Just so we know what we're dealing with here, Get Smart cost about $80 million plus marketing and advertising and all of that stuff, and in the U.S., it made back its money. The movie earned $130 million here at home, plus another $100 million internationally. You'd think an $80 million movie that rang up nearly a quarter of a billion dollars worth of business before DVD and cable kicks in would be a smash. Now, it doesn't work that way for every movie, but it's worth thinking about; how high were the expectations for Get Smart if it fails to meet those expectations at $230 million? Wouldn't expectations be just as high on some of these other films? Some of those figures are easy: Australia is a bomb. It cost at least $130 million and it won't make that much even with the international box office. Considering all the little add-ons, like marketing and distribution costs, Fox spent more on that movie than it can make back. DVD changes those figures significatly, but it's not exactly free to make and promote DVDs, either.

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Movie Review - 'Miracle at St. Anna'

Miracle at St. Anna

Starring Derek Luke, Laz Alonzo, Omar Benson Miller, and Michael Ealy
Directed by Spike Lee
Rated R

It’s hard not to keep holding out hope that the disconnected pieces in Spike Lee’s two-hour forty-minute Miracle at St. Anna will rush together cohesively in the final reel. Fingers crossed, you tell yourself, it will all be worth it.There is worth here in Lee’s tribute to the contributions of African-American soldiers during World War II, but there’s almost zero momentum at any point because Lee has so many ways he could tell this story and never chooses just one. Miracle at St. Anna is based on a novel by James McBride, and though certain events depicted did occur - like the unspeakable massacre at Sant'Anna di Stazzema that serves as the film’s climactic backdrop - it’s still a fictional story. Strangely and perhaps even inappropriately, there is no epilogue listing the jarring statistics about the numbers of black soldiers who served and died during the war. They deserve their place in history and they also deserve better than this film. Both Lee and St. Anna are incredibly well-intentioned. There are moments of strength, and as an introduction to the Buffalo Soldiers of the 92^nd Infantry Division, which served in Italy in 1944, the film is fine. However, there’s a strange mysticism involving one of the soldiers (Omar Benson Miller) who befriends an injured Italian boy. It’s a long-running plot device that should propel the story but is instead one of its many sandbags. At nearly three hours long, the running time is an issue for St. Anna. If there was a sufficient reason for the length, it could be understood, but this is a two hour film masquerading as something more, as if an extra 40 minutes makes it more important. It only makes it take longer to get to the point, and it's not really a trip worth making. The performances by Derek Luke and Miller are inconsistent, though both Laz Alonzo and Michael Ealy are memorable. But Lee just keeps piling things on, never fully developing them. Only in the broadest application does this all make sense: The beginning leads to the middle leads to the end. But the specifics - confusing enough on their own - are all the more befuddling once they’re finally put into some kind of perspective.

Fearless Forecast - 'Eagle Eye' on the Prize

For the first time, The Dark Knight will be out of the top ten at the box office. And for the first time in 20 years, Kirk Cameron will be in. Yes, over two months after it debuted to record-throttling attendance figures, The Dark Knight is completely running out of steam. Still, $525 million, which is about where it will be at the end of this weekend, is more money than every film in the top ten this weekend will make during their theatrical runs...combined. As for Kirk Cameron, he's got some holy-rolling firefighter movie that should squeak in at ninth or tenth place. The last time his name was in the paper for box office glory was probably Like Father, Like Son with Dudley Moore. As for the films at the top of the food chain this weekend, I expect Eagle Eye to do well. I'm almost certain it won't get overwhelmingly positive reviews, and that could hurt it a little bit if people are on the fence, but for the 18 - 25 crowd, they're going to flock to see it, because this is really the only movie aimed at them, and it stars Shia LaBeouf, who is probably a bigger deal for that audience than we think. Eagle Eye will run away with the bulk of the money, and Nights at Rodanthe should drag in most of the rest. Audiences love these Nicholas Sparks movies, and they showed up in strong numbers to see Unfaithful a few years ago with Richard Gere and Diane Lane. Again, because it's the only movie aimed at its crowd - soccer moms and up - it should dominate that demographic. It's just not as big a demo for movies, that's all. The third new release that won't be helped by its reviews is Miracle at St. Anna, which also has a prohibitive time issue to deal with. Spike Lee's war flick is nearly three hours long. It's also not in enough theaters to do much damage. On the flip side, there is not a lot of audience retention among the movies currently in the top ten, so St. Anna can rise higher just because of that. The Top Five: 1 - Eagle Eye ($29 million)
2 - Nights in Rodanthe ($14.5 million)
3 - Lakeview Terrace ($8.5 million)
4 - Burn After Reading ($7 million)
5 - Miracle at St. Anna ($6 million)

Rumor of the Day: Will Smith as Captain America?

It's nearly impossible to say whether or not this is true (I'm squarely in Camp False at the moment) but there's a rumor that Marvel, at one point, offered the role of Captain America to Will Smith. Sitting down with MTV to talk about his Spike Lee movie Miracle at St. Anna, Derek Luke commented on the rumor, and as far as I can tell, started the rumor as well. “I heard they offered Will Smith Captain America," said Luke. "Just shows you how times have changed." I haven't heard word one about this anywhere else, but definitely something to think about. Cap is an iconic character for Marvel, although he's not the easiest one to suit up for a movie. Smith is the biggest movie star on the planet bar none. So why wouldn't this work? Well, a lot of people would say it's because Smith is black and the character is white, which is like saying Rock Hudson never should have played a leading man to Doris Day because he was a homosexual. Plus, Marvel has already shown a willingness to do the same thing with less popular figures in their Universe; both Nick Fury and Kingpin are white in the comic books, and have been portrayed by African-Americans on film. It's just not a big deal, because the movies are, despite how much of the story they roll into their scripts, interpretations of the original comic books. Removing race from it, who's better than Will Smith for this role? I gotta tell ya: I don't think anyone is. He's a huge star, which is more important in this case than it is with Spider-Man (especially with the lackluster performance of both Hulk movies), he's a very good actor and an even better action star, and he's likable. That's what you need for Captain America, not necessarily a blonde dude. Think about it: Facing a tsunami called The Dark Knight two weeks after its release, Smith's Hancock, which received so-so reviews at best, was still the the number four movie of the summer. Combine his worldwide cash for Hancock and I am Legend, and he's responsible for over $1.1 billion in the past nine months. A purely unfounded rumor? Very likely. But the more I think about it, the more I like it.

Another Trailer Emerges for Spike Lee's 'Miracle at St. Anna'

Spike Lee has been in the spotlight a lot more since Inside Man was released in early 2007. It's a well-made thriller, and it confirmed what Lee is able to do when he's given resources, a good script, and studio support. But really, even when his profile wasn't as high, Lee had been putting out good for a number of years, in the form of documentaries. Armed with perhaps more clout than he's had since Malcolm X, Lee is taking a big step forward in his commercial filmmaking with Miracle at St. Anna, his World War II movie about four African-American soldiers who get trapped in an Italian village. We've talked about the dust-up between Lee and Clint Eastwood stemming from Spike's critical assessment of the portrayal of blacks in Clint's Flags of Our Fathers. And now it's time to let the work speak for itself. Here's the second trailer in a month for Miracle at St. Anna. The film arrives in theaters on September 26th.