Fearless Forecast - 'Land of the Lost' Revenue

Last year, we got our summer flops out of the way pretty early. Prince Caspian and Speed Racer both failed to live up to expectations in May on back-to-back weeks. This year, Terminator Salvation is the movie with the target on its back because of a $200 million budget and U.S. receipts bound to wind up under $140 million. I think we may see a similar result from Land of the Lost.

With an estimated $100 million budget, Land of the Lost is not exactly a big screen version of the Sid and Marty Krofft TV show from the 1970s. In fact, it's a pretty hard PG-13 with loads of dialogue that isn't really family friendly. I think that will hurt the movie, which should have tried to be a safer PG if it wanted to get paid. Do guys in their late 20s and 30s, Ferrell's fairly loyal base, really have a lot of interest in this? We'll see, but I'm thinking this will misfire. One reason it may not do as well is The Hangover, a better comedy, a better comedy for Ferrell's audience, a movie with more momentum and better reviews, and a similarly wide release. Land of the Lost will probably win this weekend between the two, but with a lower number than it would hope and with a lot more vulnerability over the course of the next few weeks as The Hangover becomes the summer comedy to watch.

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Box Office - $68 Million for 'Up' Buys Lots of Balloons

Up scored the third-biggest weekend in Pixar history, with a very strong $68 million debut. It trails only Finding Nemo and The Incredibles, both of which opened with $70 million. Because Pixar movies tend to have long lives theatrically, gobbling up a greater percentage of cash than a typical summer flick after the opening weekend, this indicates that Up will make well over $200 million over its run this summer.

It didn't face any direct new competition, although I can't help but think being tied to Up helped the also well-reviewed Drag Me to Hell, which was slow out of the gate. Up had the fourth strongest opening weekend of the year, and after this summer, it should still be a top six debut, at worst a top seven; there just aren't enough movies left with $200 million potential. Night at the Museum dropped to second place, with $25 million, and Terminator Salvation watched 62% of its audience from last weekend completely evaporate. With $16 million this weekend and a total of only $90 million so far, Terminator appears headed for a sub-$140 million summer.

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Box Office - 'Up' Kicks Off Weekend with $21 Million

A big debut weekend awaits Pixar's Up, which is clearly the dominant film in theaters at the moment. The Friday numbers were incredibly encouraging - $21 million, according to Box Office Mojo - and that probably translates to an easy $60 million over the first three days, perhaps in the upper 60s depending on the Saturday increases.

That kind of opening would be pretty standard for Pixar, and running mostly uncontested until Ice Age in July means that Up should make at least another $130 - $150 million in June. Drag Me to Hell appears headed toward a third place finish, which is not surprising at all. A $6.4 million start is good but not great for a PG-13 horror movie in 2,500 theaters, and the good reviews and word of mouth should keep this one around for a couple of weeks, even if it opens with a lower number than our mid-20s estimate. Right now, it's probably looking at a $20 million weekend, but as the only horror movie around for a couple months, the business should be there for Drag Me to Hell for weeks to come.

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Fearless Forecast - 'Up' Goes Up

There was an article this week about whether or not the box office hot streak was over. I don't think that's true. We've just seen some movies audiences weren't terribly excited about the last two weeks, repeating a trend from last May. But it will pick back up in about a month.

Between now and then, as I've said all along, I expect the May movies to continue to build up their bank accounts. Star Trek is the most audience-friendly movie so far, and June will be good for it, considering it's almost a month old, and Up will make most of its money there, too, because the competition in June just isn't that strong. For this week, I think we'll see a typically big debut for a Pixar movie. Last year, Wall-E opened against Wanted, and both films started with $60 million-plus. Up will see a little spike from the 3-D theaters, and that should help Pixar's tenth movie make over $60 million this weekend.

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Box Office - Weekend at 'The Museum'

The final four-day weekend estimates are in, and the news has not improved for Terminator Salvation, which marks the second straight weekend of somewhat disappointing box office for a potential summer blockbuster. Last week, it was Angels & Demons, but Terminator is probably a bigger deal all the way around, so its lighter than expected performance over the first five days is a bit more troubling.

From Thursday to Monday, Terminator has only managed $67 million. So now, even with a one day head start, it couldn't do the kind of business Night at the Museum generated. Yep: $70 million in four days for Museum versus $67 million in five days for T4. So where does Terminator go from here? Maybe $150 million, but probably not much more. A 50% drop next weekend would be in the mid-$20 million range, and that's actually the good news. The prospects are much brighter for Night at the Museum, which because it's a family film, will have a longer life in theaters, even with Up arriving next Friday. Star Trek finished the five-day frame in third place, and the totals for that film will be over $200 million before we reach next weekend, with still three or four weeks of being the only May blockbuster worth seeing to follow.

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