DVD New Release of the Week: 'Prince of Persia'

So we traditionally don't cover DVD/BluRay/Netflix (add more here) releases here at GTBP, but why not?  Post theatrical releases is a huge market and I'm sure most people here have either Netflix or BluRay disc players.  So going forward every tuesday, I want to tell our audience what we think is the best newly released movie to watch for the week.

This week, he had three movies to release on DVD, 'Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time', 'Letters to Juliet', and 'Just Wright'.  This week's DVD movie releases are mediocre at best, but if you're looking for just an entertaining movie you can mindlessly sit in front of your TV and enjoy,

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Fearless Forecast - 'Greek' Won't Topple 'Shrek'

I look for the sluggish summer to continue at the box office this week. If you read our recent article about the weak Memorial Day weekend returns, then this shouldn't come as a big shock to you. The numbers are down and unless there's something on the horizon between now and Twilight that exceeds expectations, this summer will probably one produce a handful of hits by the usual summer definition of the word.

Any prospective surprise is probably a week or two away - The A-Team, The Karate Kid, or Knight and Day later in the month - and Toy Story 3 was already going to do great business, so that's not really part of the equation. This week's crop only has the potential for one break-out, Get Him to the Greek, but I'm unconvinced that Russell Brand and Jonah Hill can carry a movie to great heights, financially speaking. True, The Hangover did it, but we don't get comedies like that very often. I've seen estimates around $20 million for Greek, but there are three reasons I'm shortening the reach on it a little bit. 1) What I mentioned above, namely that, as a pitch, it's not an out-of-the-box smash. 2) The box office in general is favoring established, safer movies at the moment. 3) It's Universal, and even if audiences aren't aware of the connection, for some reason, Universal can't even accidentally score a hit. The last time the studio made money was Fast and Furious 14 months ago.

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Box Office - 'Sex and the City 2' Falling Fast

There will be a lot of Tuesday morning quarterbacking over the relative failure of Sex and the City 2. The Monday estimates, when added to the weekend numbers, only amount to $51 million and change. Remember, two years ago, this series had a $57 million three-day weekend, toppling Indiana Jones on its way to $150-something million. But that won't happen a second time.

Instead, the film has dropped behind Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, not just on Monday, where estimates indicate it trails the poorly performing video game movie by almost $2 million, but since Friday (by nearly a million bucks). The Thursday start was big - $14 million - but ever since, the sequel has lost its footing, and by the time next weekend is through, Sex 2 will probably be looking up at $80 million, about 20% less than its predecessor. Another bad sign is that the first Sex and the City fell off the rails in its second weekend, dropping nearly 63% to only earn $21 million in early June. If the sequel mirrors that performance relative to its earlier cooling trend, it might only make about $15 million next weekend, since so much of its current $51 million arrived on opening day.

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Box Office - Shrek Screws Carrie Bradshaw

Because it didn't get off to a huge start, Sex and the City 2 didn't win the Memorial Day weekend, and actually, there's a really good chance that it won't even be the top movie when you roll Thursday's numbers into it. The sequel started out with $14 million on its early opening day, then added another $13 million on Friday, but as we mentioned in yesterday's update, that was likely to be the end of the good times for Sex and the City, which fell back to third place on Saturday and Sunday.

Now, looking at a five-day jaunt from Thursday to Monday, if Shrek Forever After can eclipse Sex by about $3 million on Memorial Day, it will not only win the holiday weekend, but the extended frame, too. The key is consistency, and while Sex has lost money every successive day, Shrek built on Thursday and Friday with a $17 million Saturday. Even its Sunday estimate - around $15 million - is pretty healthy, especially in comparison to what's around it. With the exception of Thursday - which counts, of course; it's just not an A/B comparison - Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time has played Sex and the City fairly even, too. It got beat on Friday, but won the battle on Saturday and Sunday, and based on its daily holds, ought to win Monday, as well. Still, it's on pace for maybe a $35 million weekend, which is not very good.

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Box Office - 'Sex' Wins Friday, 'Persia' Hardly Princely

Here's where Sex and the City 2 slows down. Some will report that the $27.3 million it's accumulated in two days is a sign of something powerful, but there are two reasons why that's not really the case.

First, when you look at this film's predecessor, it made $26 million on its opening day, which was a Friday, and though you could argue that this Thursday and Friday kind of served the same purpose, all those extra opportunities on a pre-holiday Friday should have amounted to more than $13.1 million. Second, since no other day from the first Sex and the City came close to $20 million and this one can't possibly have the same word of mouth because it's so terrible, the $27 million is its big shot. It may do a little better on Saturday (although the first one certainly didn't) but then it will come back to earth pretty quickly. The news is still better for Sex than it is Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, the third straight bad start for a potential blockbuster. The $200 million video game movie only brought in $10 million, and I had a feeling it would start out much stronger and probably be more competitive. Since we're looking at a four-day weekend, the numbers will appear better than they really are, but its opening day is far worse than Robin Hood, which is a huge disappointment in the US.

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