'Toy Story 3' Biggest Animated Film Ever Worldwide

Congratulations to Toy Story 3, the new all-time animated box office leader in worldwide ticket sales. While it still has a few million to go to catch Shrek 2 in the US (and it probably won't happen), Pixar's latest has overtaken the second Shrek in total sales, earning $920 million so far.

All in all, it's been a huge hit for Disney, the studio's second movie to hit $400 million of more here in the states and the second $900 million-plus earner globally this year, joining Alice in Wonderland. That film went on to hit a billion. Can Toy Story 3 do that? It's really hard to say. Supposing it makes about another $10 - $15 million in the US, which seems like the absolute max, then foreign sales would have to be about $65 million.

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Box Office - Massive Start for 'Toy Story 3'

Toy Story 3 might not get the top weekend of 2010, but it could be the top movie of the year. A $41 million opening day, which should indicate at least $50 million on Saturday and a weekend number north of $115 million, is the first step for a film that now seems destined to get to the summer movie milestone of $300 million in a hurry.

Pixar movies always hold up, a combination of their incredibly wide appeal and repeat viewing. In general, anything that does more than a multiplier of three - meaning it earns more than three times its opening weekend number over its theatrical run - is a pretty successful release. Every Pixar movie has done that, so we're comfortable assuming this movie should nearly triple this weekend's performance. I won't go all in and declare that it's making $345 million or more, just because this weekend is so much bigger than expectations, but the odds are in its favor. Being the best of the summer movies helps, too. Iron Man 2 got off to a similarly large start, but couldn't hold up (it won't hit a multiplier of three, for instance), and Shrek Forever After started soft but has held up over the last month. This movie should combine the best of both of those examples, hitting $200 million in about another week or so.

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Fearless Forecast - Families Flock to 'Toy Story 3'

This summer has been a tough one to figure out. Almost nothing has performed as well as expected, and while it's easy to say the box office is down, we're still only three months removed from Alice in Wonderland, which has gone on to become the fifth-biggest movie ever worldwide, making a billion dollars faster than anything not named Avatar.

Will Toy Story 3 be like Shrek Forever After and kind of softball the opening weekend but hang around for a long time or will family audiences eat it up like The Karate Kid? I'm guessing the latter, and in huge numbers. Toy Story may emerge as the best reviewed film of the summer and maybe the year, which is slightly different from being the best movie all year; it just means there won't be many bad reviews. That always seems to be the case with Pixar, and it's one of the very few movie brands in the world that sells tickets based on its name. That's because Pixar doesn't falter, and even when they did, Cars wasn't that bad. Plus, the name Toy Story is about as good as it gets. Fans from 8 - 80. So I look for it to be pretty stout, especially with the 3-D ticket prices, which are actually justifiable here as opposed to last summer's Up.

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Box Office - 'Karate Kid' Tops $50 Million

When a movie doubles its expected box office performance, it's a pretty good sign that it will have legs. The Hangover did it 53 weeks ago, and now The Karate Kid has opened up a can of whoop ass, generating the third best debut of the summer with $56 million in the last three days.

It started on Friday with just under $19 million, and by that point, it was already clear that it would be The A-Team, which was slightly off predictions, but still managed to do OK. However, it was the other 80s reboot, starring Jackie Chan and Jaden Smith (and produced by Jaden's dad, Will) that became the first unpredictable out of the box smash of the summer. We aimed slightly below $30 million, which given the theater counts and the strong run for Shrek Forever After seemed like a good ballpark. But it appears that just as many parents were looking forward to this one as their kids, and because the movie's pretty good (or at least isn't terrible), it ought to play well for several weeks, even if Toy Story 3 is only seven days away. By the end of next weekend, Karate Kid should top $100 million, something that has eluded Robin Hood, Sex and the City 2, and Prince of Persia, despite much more marketing and more recognizable stars.

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Box Office - 'Karate Kid' Destroys 'A-Team' on Friday

For the first time all summer, a movie has outperformed its projections at the box office, even if it is for just one day. However, based on the positive vibes it's received from critics in a lot of cases and how well it hits the target for family audiences, I don't expect Friday to be the anomaly.

The Karate Kid is pacing at about 200% its industry estimates for the weekend after a Friday take of $19 million. That's the best day of the season for any movie not named Shrek Forever After or Iron Man 2, and since family movies tend to do better on Saturdays because there are more opportunities to see them, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Karate Kid could manage $50 - $55 million this weekend. We've been waiting for a non-tentpole film to establish itself as one of the big deals of summer, and it's finally happened. How well the movie will play with Toy Story 3 opening seven days later remains to be seen, but at least The Karate Kid will make more than people thought it would, and that's the only movie this summer you can say that about.

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