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Entries in Summer Movies (59)

Fearless Forecast - A 'Death Race' For the Top Spot

This is, for all practical purposes, the last summer movie weekend. I know there's Babylon A.D. and Disaster Movie on the horizon for Labor Day weekend, but this is the last weekend where any significant money will be made. And even at that, "significant" is a very relative term.

You might think that Death Race would cruise to victory this weekend, but I'm not entirely sure. Jason Statham has only had a number one movie (though never a $20 million debut) and because this isn't opening in anywhere near 3,000 theaters, it would have a lot of work to do to take the top spot. Ditto the new comedy The House Bunny.

So if it's not a new movie at number one, I guess that means Tropic Thunder will win again, right? It could, but even under optimum conditions, it wouldn't be by a huge margin. It's still the best option in theaters, with the biggest names and the most buzz. However, the movie is still not poised to be the runaway hit I thought it would be. The only thing is, I'm troubled by the drop-off from an already less-than-stellar opening weekend. If the decline is just a little more than it should be, Death Race could slip in at number one without having a huge breakout weekend.

And what about The Dark Knight? What should even more new movies do to its chances to break $500 million? Nothing, really. Because they aren't must-see summer movies, that makes the Batman sequel an even better prospect for repeat business than it might normally be. By Monday, the second-biggest movie in history will be a week away from half a billion. The interest for me is how long Warner Bros. keeps it alive. It's currently in 3,600 theaters or so, but you can expect that number to be cut dramatically very soon. I still like the $535 million we proposed a month ago, with the possibility of more if the studio boosts the film again at Halloween.

The Top Five:

1 - Death Race ($15.5 million)

2 - Tropic Thunder ($15 million)

3 - The Dark Knight ($11 million)

4 - The House Bunny ($8.5 million)

5 - The Rocker ($6.5 million)

Posted on Thursday, August 21, 2008 at 09:37AM by Registered CommenterColin Boyd in , , , , , , , | CommentsPost a Comment

Box Office - 'Dark Knight' Second All-Time, Second This Weekend

The 31-day stranglehold on number one is over. The Dark Knight has finally surrendered the top spot at the U.S. box office, but it did not go quietly. In fact, while most every analyst predicted a drop to third place, the Batman sequel stood its ground and only slipped to second place, passing Star Wars on the all-time list of top-grossing movies in the process; it now only trails Titanic.

The new champeen is Tropic Thunder, which did not put up great numbers over its first five days. As a matter of fact, Pineapple Express, last week's number two film, opened more strongly over the same number of days. But the Ben Stiller comedy did outperform the rest of the field each day, so it sits with $37 million so far, according to Box Office Mojo, about five million less than I would have expected.

The Dark Knight wound up in second place for two reasons: The new Star Wars movie, The Clone Wars, opened very soft, generating only $15 million, and The Dark Knight only lost 35% of its audience from the previous weekend. That number is significant because it represents the second-smallest drop in the top ten - for the movie that's been in the top then the longest - and that means, of course, that the Batman sequel is getting a lot of return business.

The weekend's third new release, Mirrors with Kiefer Sutherland, opened in fourth place, ahead of Pineapple Express, which had a 57% freefall compared to last week.

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Posted on Sunday, August 17, 2008 at 11:07AM by Registered CommenterColin Boyd in , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments3 Comments

Box Office - 'Tropic Thunder' Suffering Olympic Fever?

We scoffed at last week's run-and-hide approach employed by Pineapple Express and The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2, hoping to avoid Olympic Fever by opening on Wednesday. It's hard to say whether or not the Olympics really would have caused a lot of damage to a traditional weekend, but we're not laughing this week. Michael Phelps has been in the water.

Yes, the swimmer's assault on history may come at the expense of Tropic Thunder. The new Ben Stiller-directed comedy co-starring Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr. has not exploded the way a movie of its caliber normally would. There are really only two logical explanations: Michael Phelps and the Stiller Backlash that also sunk (pardon the pun) The Heartbreak Kid last fall.

Tropic Thunder will most likely still be a big hit, but its numbers since Wednesday are nowhere near what I would've thought. According to Box Office Mojo, we're looking at $8.2 million on Friday and a three-day total of right around $20 million. The five-day weekend is below $40 million for the new comedy, which I predicted would beat the $41 million performance last weekend by Pineapple Express. It's still possible, because these numbers are just estimates, but if the prospective audience stayed home to watch Michael Phelps win gold medal number seven on Friday, why would they run out and watch a movie on Saturday when he's bucking for his eighth?

The Olympic storyline has some teeth across the board this weekend, as nothing has done overwhelmingly strong business, and no, the teeth reference has nothing to do with our Olympic hero's constantly agape mouth. Star Wars: The Clone Wars opened in second place with an estimated $6.2 million, which would give it an opening weekend number in the $20 million range; Mirrors opened with $4.2 million, and is on pace to barely crack the top five horror movie openings in 2008; even The Dark Knight showed some vulnerability, although its $5 million Friday will still guarantee at worst a third-place weekend finish.

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Posted on Saturday, August 16, 2008 at 12:31PM by Registered CommenterColin Boyd in , , , , , , , , , | Comments3 Comments

Fearless Forecast - It's Simple, Jack: 'Tropic Thunder' Will Dethrone 'The Dark Knight'

Four and done for The Dark Knight? Yeah, I think that's accurate. Should the Batman sequel win a fifth weekend in a row at the box office, I'd be overwhelmed by how wrong I am (which happens less often than you might believe).

We've covered ad nauseum the film's pursuit of Titanic, which was number one for a dozen weeks or so back in 1998. Why can't The Dark Knight do that? If you've followed our box office reports, you're no doubt tired of hearing me say it, but it bears repeating: Competition. At this point, there are just too many movies to see for the first time. I have no idea what percentage of The Dark Knight's potential audience has already seen it, but I'd wager it's close to 75 or 80%. Seeing a movie again, no matter how much you like it, is a tastier notion if there aren't other options you also want to check out.

This week, three new releases hit theaters, all of which could steal a chunk of the Batman crowd. It's as crowded as any weekend this summer, actually, and by now, enough of The Dark Knight audience has eroded, clearing the way for a new number one movie.

I see Tropic Thunder doing well, probably outperforming Pineapple Express over the weekend itself, spurred on by very good reviews, the controversy about its insensitivity toward people with mental disabilities, and the Depp-like goodwill toward Robert Downey Jr. Although we're reading its Wednesday numbers aren't as strong as Pineapple's - it's not even close - this movie skews much older, and by that, I mean people who have regular full-time jobs and can't just go see a movie on Wednesday night. No offense.

I think it's going to have a stronger Friday than Wednesday, which Pineapple Express did not, and I think its Saturday will be even stronger. If those two days follow that course, we're looking at around $20 million before we get to Sunday. So, I figure, $27 for the weekend, and right around $40 - $42 million for the five-day total.

What about Star Wars: The Clone Wars? This is a movie that reviews can help and hurt. If they're overwhelmingly positive (and so far they aren't), then it could attract the casual fan who's aware of the Lucas universe - the Lucasverse, if you will - but if the reviews aren't very good, then we'll probably see its target audience hit the theaters hard on Friday with drop-offs after that. Can it make $100 million with just its die-hard fans? Doubtful, but it could definitely finish in second place this weekend.

The horror movie Mirrors is the third major release of the week. I think it's a mistake by Fox to not screen it for critics. In a weekend with this much competition, in an industry fueled by debut performances at the box office, any front page news is better than nothing. "Don't they usually do that with horror movies," you ask? Yes, but when that horror movie is the big movie of the weekend, it doesn't matter. It'll get on the front page of the paper anyway and it gets the most advertising by default. That's not the case here. Movies like Halloween will make the most money because they're in the preferred position that weekend, and for horror movies more than just about any other genre, the opening draw is a huge factor.

I can't believe, given the success of The Strangers, that the studio is not letting the film be seen, even though it stars one of Fox's biggest names (Kiefer Sutherland). Why not just hold the movie until the new TV season starts and run ads during your first week of premieres? It won't cost you anything and it'll probably generate more buzz and more money.

As it stands, despite appearing in over 2,000 theaters, Mirrors, whether it's good or not, will have to fend for itself. Terrible mistake, and I think the studio will regret it.

The Top Five:

1 - Tropic Thunder ($27 million)

2 - Star Wars: The Clone Wars ($18 million)

3 - The Dark Knight ($16.5 million, $473 million total)

4 - Pineapple Express ($12.5 million)

5 - Mirrors ($9 million)

Posted on Thursday, August 14, 2008 at 10:39AM by Registered CommenterColin Boyd in , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments1 Comment

Box Office - 'Dark Knight' Wins Again, Now Third Highest-Grossing Film in U.S. History

darkknighposter19.jpgWhat an unusual five days it's been at the box office. Pineapple Express broke through big time on Wednesday, setting an August record for a Wednesday release, and then trailed off quickly. And just when it looked like The Dark Knight had reigned for its last days heading into the weekend, the Batman sequel came back in a big way to claim its fourth box office victory in a row, and almost certainly its last.

With $26 million in weekend ticket sales, according to the new Box Office Mojo estimates, The Dark Knight has now amassed $441 million in 24 days. That's the third-highest total in U.S. history. (Nobody make the case for inflation, please, because I'm tired of arguing it.)

The film will very likely beat Star Wars and its $460 million by this time next week, meaning it will have taken a month to become the second film to ever rake in over $465 million.

As for Pineapple Express, the Wednesday opening did hurt its weekend totals, a theory we put out there on Thursday. So many people wanted to see it immediately, that by the time the weekend arrived, there was little fire left. In fact, the only day where it showed an increase was going to Friday from Thursday; the Judd Apatow-produced stoner comedy starring Seth Rogen and James Franco lost audience on Saturday and on Sunday, while The Dark Knight gained about 40% of viewers on Saturday, the day that really put the sequel over the edge.

The same kind of early release blahs hit The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2, which never really got on track anyway, taking in just over $19 million over five days, and during the weekend, struggled to make $10 million. A fourth-place finish is all the film could muster, even with a near freefall by The Mummy, which held on for a third-place finish.

Step Brothers continued to do good business despite the new comedy in theaters; it rounded out the weekend's top five and has earned $80 million. $100 million seems unlikely, but there's a fair chance it could enter that club in another three or four weeks. Mamma Mia! is the newest member in that club, incidentally, and internationally, the film has nearly grossed $250 million.

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Posted on Sunday, August 10, 2008 at 11:03AM by Registered CommenterColin Boyd in , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments5 Comments
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