Box Office - Would You Believe $40 Million for 'Get Smart'?

It turns out Get Smart could hold on to its audience over the course of a weekend, besting our projections and winding up just short of $40 million in its debut, according to Box Office Mojo. You would have to consider this evidence that Steve Carell is now one of the comedians audiences will pay to see. Even though Evan Almighty didn't make its ridiculous $200 million budget back last summer, it was a $100 million comedy by the end of the bean counting, and Dan in Real Life, even though it was a much smaller film, made about $50 million on a $25 million budget. And it's curious to note that this is the weekend that cements him as a "movie star," because it's also the same weekend audiences completely gave up on Mike Myers. His Love Guru was an absolute mess before anyone paid to see it, and now it's a bomb. Its failure won't be on the same level as Speed Racer, because the movie cost about half as much to make, but if you're Mike Myers and you can't make back a $60 million budget in the U.S. after all the promotion and hosting the MTV Movie Awards (a none-too-clever ploy by Paramount, who is owned by the same company), the message is clear: Nobody cares, and nobody thinks you're funny. Opening weekend bombs almost never recover in the next few weeks. Bad press about the debut as well as negative reviews eat movies like this alive. So while an average movie that made $14 million in three days might stick around a while and make $50 million, undeniable misfires like this usually sink pretty quickly. I think The Love Guru would be extremely lucky to make $35 - $40 million. The second- and third-place finish is actually too close to call, because these numbers are just estimates. Either Kung Fu Panda or The Incredible Hulk could win second place. We thought that'd be a good race going into the weekend and it hasn't disappointed. Here's an interesting nugget: Night Shyamalan's The Happening, previously the most reviled movie of the month, has made $50 million in two weeks. People have clearly not given up on him yet. Another week and this will have turned a profit based solely on U.S. ticket sales, meaning we'll have at least one more summer movie from this guy. This has already outperformed Lady in the Water, which could only muster $42 million. The Top Five: 1 - Get Smart ($39.2 million) 2 - Kung Fu Panda ($21.7 million) 3 - The Incredible Hulk ($21.6 million) 4 - The Love Guru ($14 million) 5 - The Happening ($10 million)

'The Happening' is a Happening After All

There's some good news for Night Shyamalan, after all. The Hollywood Reporter tells us The Happening debuted well overseas, where it also got negative reviews, taking in an estimated $32 million on 5,700 screens. In fact, that number makes it the highest grossing overseas film this weekend, despite its third-place finish in the U.S. Now, to be fair, it was in 2,500 more theaters than The Incredible Hulk, which made a whopping $31 million and nearly doubled the per-screen average of The Happening, but...any port in a storm, or so they say. Fox is putting the positive spin on the numbers. "We were in 88 countries, we were up against Hulk in eight of the top 16 markets and we had the European soccer championships," said co-president of Fox International, Paul Hanneman, "and still we had some really good numbers coming out most of these markets." Hanneman admitted the reviews were "mixed to difficult," which is hardly flattering, but countered by claiming victories in France, Italy, Spain, Venezuela, Chile, and Ecuador. As for The Incredible Hulk, Universal says the new Marvel film should easily exceed the $113 million rounded up by its 2003 predecessor, and the international total for the film is now up to a comfortable $85 million. What could that final number look like? Well, Universal hasn't released the film in all of its international territories, so some money will come in that way, and it should continue to have strong business for a couple of weeks. All told, we might be looking at a movie that makes $275 - $325 million worldwide. That's respectable for a property that had so recently left a bad taste in moviegoers' mouths. Still, it's not going to be able to compete with the big tickets of summer; Iron Man is over half a billion and Indiana Jones has now racked up $633 million around the globe, good enough for 33rd all time.

Box Office - 'Hulk' Does $54 Million Worth of Damage

The 2003 Hulk may have made more money in its opening weekend, but the future is much rosier for this year's installment. The Incredible Hulk made $54 million in its debut It cooled off on Saturday from a $21 million opening day, but Sunday's numbers reflect a typical decline for a big film, which should mean a steady road ahead for Marvel's reinvention. It's not hard to compare these numbers to Iron Man and say that The Incredible Hulk should make about half as much as the first summer movie, which might be just enough to turn a profit domestically. The international receipts will only pad its stats. It's clear we're not looking at a runaway hit, but a solid summer movie. That might be a little less than Marvel was hoping for, but positive word of mouth for the film could leak out and help it in the next two critical weekends. Night Shyamalan's The Happening also had a big Friday, but whereas The Incredible Hulk still made $50-odd million, The Happening quickly faded, with only $7 million on Sunday. Its three-day total was $30 million, according to Box Office Mojo, and applying the same logic to this film as Hulk, it may make money at the end of the day; it's about halfway there already. Unfortunately, word of mouth will be less kind to The Happening. This movie should see a rather quick departure from the top ten. Kung Fu Panda was the weekend's number two film, generating another $34 million in ticket sales. There's a slim chance this could hit $150 million in the next seven days - very slim - but I do think we're looking at a total box office in the $175 - $185 million range, which is certainly healthy if not overwhelming. Next week will be interesting: Two comedies, Get Smart and The Love Guru, will open against one another. That's a bizarre strategy, and you'd think a comedy would work better against Hulk just as The Happening would work better in the marketplace if it were up against a comedy. Get Smart is opening in about 1,000 more theaters, which should be enough to get it the top spot, but if there's a lot of redundancy between its audience and that for The Love Guru, The Incredible Hulk could sneak back in at number one if it can make another $25 - $30 million. The top five: 1 - The Incredible Hulk ($54 million) 2 - Kung Fu Panda ($34 million) 3 - The Happening ($30 million) 4 - You Don't Mess With the Zohan ($16 million) 5 - Indiana Jones ($13 million)

'Hulk' Makes Plenty of Green on Friday

They're no doubt popping champagne corks at Marvel Studios today. The Incredible Hulk got off to a fast start on Friday, with $21 million in ticket sales, according to Box Office Mojo. That number likely means a $55 - $60 million weekend for the re-launch of the the character, easily good enough to put the film in the top position this weekend, and depending on word of mouth, could lead it to victory again next weekend.

Good reviews and Friday word-of-mouth is liable to keep The Incredible Hulk moving forward this weekend, so I don't see a Sex and the City-type drop-off in business Saturday and Sunday. An even bigger surprise was the performance of Night Shyamalan's The Happening, which made $12.8 million on Friday, putting it on pace to earn roughly $35 million this weekend, unless word-of-mouth - which ought to be pretty bad in this case - makes the movie stumble.

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Fearless Forecast - 'Hulk' Smash Everything

We've been here before. Five years ago next weekend, Ang Lee's Hulk hit theaters in a big way. The film made $62 million in its debut (equivalent to about $70 million today, based on the number of theaters). Of course, the film only managed $70 million during the rest of its run in the United States, which is a terrible way to finish. A lot of people don't what to expect from The Incredible Hulk: Is it too soon? Aren't we really just waiting for The Dark Knight? Won't this version suck, too? The argument has been made that a few recent summer movies are critic-proof, with Indiana Jones, Sex and the City, and You Don't Mess With the Zohan surviving middling reviews to put up big box office. In my opinion, this weekend is just the opposite. For the first time in a while, I think critical reactions to The Incredible Hulk and Night Shyamalan's The Happening will have a pretty big impact on their debuts. Neither film exactly has audiences standing in line, so I believe if people hear that Hulk is good (which they will), more people will be curious to see it, just as if they hear The Happening is awful (which they will), they might stay away. I'm a little surprised by some of the projections I've seen for both movies, but maybe that's because I'm subscribing to the theory that Friday reviews and word-of-mouth will influence the totals for them. I think The Incredible Hulk will do slightly better than expectations - and I'll give part of the credit to Marvel revealing the Tony Stark/Iron Man cameo in its latest commercial - while I can't pretend to think a $25 million opening for The Happening makes any sense at all. Hell, if Speed Racer couldn't do it... Plus, The Happening is an R-rated film, and those don't usually drum up huge business in the summer, especially not against PG-13 fare that a lot more people are interested in seeing. Let's not undersell the fact that Night Shyamalan has basically stolen $20 from every moviegoer who paid to see both The Village and Lady in the Water. They probably won't be too stoked to throw more money away on a movie getting lousy reviews. Here's our Top Five: 1 - The Incredible Hulk - $58 million 2 - Kung Fu Panda - $34 million 3 - You Don't Mess With the Zohan - $24 million 4 - The Happening - $19 million 5 - Indiana Jones - $11 million