'Zack and Miri' Make Another Poster

From the Too Little Too Late department comes this winning little movie poster for Zack and Miri Make a Porno. Honestly, I couldn't believe the free advertising this movie got because of the controversy surrounding its name, and I couldn't believe the amount of paid advertising it received from The Weinstein Company. And yet, it's still going to be a disappointment for the studio.That's not to say it won't make money - because it clearly will if it hasn't already - but everyone believes Bob and Harvey thought they had a real difference maker here, and audiences just haven't shown up. It will do maybe a little better than we're used to seeing out of Kevin Smith movies and less than what we're used to seeing out of Seth Rogen movies. If it gets to $40 million, that would make Kevin Smith do backflips, which is probably not something you want to see. But the $75 million projections just aren't going to happen.Still, I like this happy new piece of marketing goodness for Zack and Miri, but I don't think a poster is going to make that big a difference at this point.
Thanks to IMP Awards Zack and Miri is in theaters now.

Box Office - $63 Million for 'Madagascar'

It was a tremendous weekend for Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, as the animated sequel absolutely dominated the box office with a three-day total of $63 million, according to estimates released by Box Office Mojo. That was more than even the biggest estimates, and it was a $27 million Saturday - a 56% increase over Friday - that really sealed the deal. Madagascar now has the fourth-biggest opening of 2008, and I think you can guess the top three.But that was not the only film making big money this weekend. Role Models, an R-rated comedy with Paul Rudd and Seann William Scott, had a very consistent weekend, although in a much lower tax bracket, and took home just shy of $20 million. It has already caught up to Zack and Miri Make a Porno, which has only made $20 million in ten days, and will struggle to clear $40 million. Role Models, on the other hand, should break the $50 million mark by the time it's said and done.The other new R-rated comedy, Soul Men, tanked, drawing just $5.6 million and finishing out of the top five. It will be interesting to see how strong Madagascar's second weekend is when it faces much stronger competition from Quantum of Solace.The Top Five:1 - Madagascar ($63 million)
2 - Role Models ($19.2 million)
3 - High School Musical ($9.5 million)
4 - Changeling ($7.2 million)
5 - Zack and Miri ($6.5 million)

Box Office - 'Madagascar' Roars with $17 Million on Friday

Audiences escaped 2 Madagascar on Friday, driving its domestic box office receipts to $17.4 million, according to Box Office Mojo. On Thursday, we estimated that the film would make $49 million, and if the Friday trend holds, it should do significantly better than that. Of course, over the past couple of months, what we've seen out of most new releases is that they aren't always following the Friday trend.

Steve Mason at Fantasy Moguls has the sequel doing upwards of $58 million, which I still think is a little high. If I were allowed to readjust my prediction based on this first number, I'd say $54 million. The main thing is that the movie did what it was supposed to do, which can't be said of everything that's new in theaters. Soul Men, the new Samuel L. Jackson-Bernie Mac comedy, is bombing. We expected the film to top $10 million this weekend, and that's not going to happen. It didn't even make $2 million on opening day, which is a shame - because Bernie Mac is sincerely funny in his final role - and a big surprise. Role Models, the week's other new comedy, did significantly better than anyone expected, taking in almost $7 million on Friday.

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Fearless Forecast - Mad Money for 'Madagascar'

And so begins a big month of box office activity that could beat December totals when all is said and done. We have three big releases this weekend, only one of which will make a huge chunk of change, and then with Quantum of Solace, Bolt, and Twilight all with blockbuster potential, November is like a second May, the last month that saw big movie after big movie after big movie.It all starts with Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa. I've seen some really high projections for this flick, some ballooning up to $60 million on its opening weekend. But what I haven't seen is a lot of advertising, certainly not as much as Quantum of Solace, which opens next week. I have no doubt that it will do well, both this weekend and over the long haul, but $60 million seems a bit high to me. Consider this: The first movie opened in third place on Memorial Day weekend back in 2005 with $47 million, albeit against a lot of competition (Star Wars, The Longest Yard). But even though it will easily take a victory lap this weekend, only six movies have opened north of $60 million in 2008, and this doesn't exactly have that aura.The good news for Madagascar is that it's opening against a couple of very adult-oriented comedies that have modest expectations - Role Models and Soul Men. Role Models is getting great reviews, actually, but probably doesn't have any real staying power. That's tougher to find for comedies, anyway. Soul Men will draw a slightly bigger crowd at first because of the passing of Bernie Mac, but it, too, will struggle after about the second weekend. I think you'd be generous to say that either one of those movies will have a total box office greater than Madagascar's output in just its first three days.As for the movies already in theaters, the only real story is how close Eagle Eye will get to becoming another $100 million movie for Shia LaBeouf. It's already made $93 million, believe it or not. The rest of them, from Zack and Miri to High School Musical, have pretty much done most of their damage. Changeling is the only film among that group that could still be doing decent business in another couple of weeks, because it draws a much older crowd that will see something they really want to see three weeks late rather than spending money on something just because it's new.The Top Five:

1 - Madagascar ($49 million)
2 - Soul Men ($12.5 million)
3 - High School Musical ($10 million)
4 - Role Models ($9.5 million)
5 - Changeling ($6.5 million)

Last week, our predictions were thrown off by Halloween night. We apologize for not taking that into consideration. Still, we got the order exactly right, knowing that High School Musical would outdraw Zack and Miri. Our totals for the top three films were off considerably because of the Friday night hiccup, but we finished strong, predicting where The Haunting of Molly Hartley would wind up and suggesting - against the objections of our readers, by the way - that Changeling would do $9 million.

Box Office - 'Musical' Takes 'Zack and Miri' to School

The Halloween weekend finally got on track at the box office, but for the new releases, it was too little too late. High School Musical won again, and was the comeback kid, recovering from a fifth-place finish on Friday to zoom to the top spot on Saturday, according to Box Office Mojo. The Disney flick has now earned over $60 million in ten days and might have one more really good week left.The big loser actually finished in second place: Zack and Miri Make a Porno only made about half of what it was expected to, so you could argue that it suffered the most from the industry-wide aberration on Friday in which the top five films combined for less than $10 million. The Kevin Smith comedy starring Seth Rogen and Elizabeth Banks will still make money, especially once it hits DVD, but there was a lot more marketing for this than we're used to seeing for a Kevin Smith movie, and the audience that didn't show up Friday also didn't make its presence felt on Saturday and Sunday. Even if had made another $6 million on Friday night, which seems like a stretch, Zack and Miri still wouldn't have hit its estimate of about $20 million.In the long run, we're looking at another sub-$40 million earner from Smith, which again, is perfectly fine. It's just not what they hoped for. Saw V finished in third place and Clint Eastwood's Changeling and The Haunting of Molly Hartley rounded out the top five. Guy Ritchie's Rocknrolla, which expanded to about 850 theaters, didn't do very well by any stretch of the imagination, and its per-screen average indicates that even where it's playing, it's not a must-see movie.The Top Five:1 - High School Musical ($15 million)
2 - Zack and Miri ($10.7 million)
3 - Saw V ($10.1 million)
4 - Changeling ($9.4 million)
5 - The Haunting of Molly Hartley ($6.7 million)