So What Will Be the Best Summer Movie?

We've chronicled the ones you can't miss - those mega-blockbusters everyone will be talking about - and we've given our box office forecast for the summer. Now, based on a suggestion by my good friend and Big Picture reader, Christian, let's see what summer movie should be the best of the bunch.

Last year, the best summer movie was The Bourne Ultimatum. I don't think there's any questioning that. If you do question it, please move along. It wasn't among the top five in terms of box office, true, but it's probably the only summer movie from 2007 to make an embarrassing amount of money largely on the basis that it just flat kicked ass.

So we'll go through some candidates - not mentioning those that have too many negatives - and list the pros and cons, and hopefully by the end, we'll all agree on summer's best movie.

Before we start, let's set some ground rules. A summer movie is a bit like pornography if I may borrow a rule of thumb employed by the Supreme Court: I know it when I see it. Two years ago, Little Miss Sunshine was the best movie released between May and September, but it's not a summer movie. Secondly, check your box office expectations at the door. Don't care.

Our criteria are simple: What's the possible upside and what's the possible downside? Some movies look good from a distance but when you start to weigh everything you realize they're not a sure thing, while other movies may not have nearly the risk either way.

And we've eliminated Speed Racer, Prince Caspian, The Happening, Get Smart, Journey to the Center of the Earth, X-Files, The Mummy, Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder from the discussion. Several others don't even warrant being mentioned. These titles either have too low a ceiling or too many possible negatives going in.

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'Indiana Jones' Tops Our Summer Box Office Predictions

I'm not sure 2008 will have the gawdy coffer-stuffing that made 2007 a record year. As an example, Entertainment Weekly's Top Ten only has five existing franchises. Last year, there were almost 15 summer sequels/remakes (not counting TV spinoffs), almost all of which wound up making the list of the year's top 20 box office hits.

This year, there are only nine, which means that a lot of unfamiliar titles will have to do big work. And I don't know if they can all do it.

I've recalculated my projections from my Seven of Summer article a couple weeks back. I was a little high in places - not like Paula Abdul, mind you - and I undervalued a couple more. But I've looked at the schedule again and I think this list is more on target.

Certainly, you'd look at the franchises first, and you have to look at the oldest one competiting this summer, which also happens to be one of the most revered film series ever.

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Movie Trailer - Brian Cox Busts Out of the Joint in 'The Escapist'

Sure, I know it's not one of your splashy superhero summer movies, but you've got to check out this trailer for THINKFilm's The Escapist. The Sundance entry stars Brian Cox, and if you were describing this movie to me and said the words "stars Brian Cox," you could stop describing it to me. That guy's flat brilliant.

And in The Escapist, Cox appears to be up to his old tricks. He plays a prisoner serving a life sentence but when he gets a letter informing him that his daughter is deathly ill, he hatches a scheme to break himself out of prison.

Maybe it's a little Shawshank, but it also smacks of a great old bank heist movie, because there are so many people in on the plan. The Escapist also stars Joseph Fiennes and is the rookie feature project for director Rupert Wyatt.


According to THINKFilm's website, The Escapist is set for a Fall 2008 release here in the states; the UK will receive the film in June.

Fearless Forecast - 'Baby Mama' Wins Again (OK, Not Really)

The question isn't whether the first summer movie of 2008 will open at number one but rather how much will it make. And following closely behind that question is what the first weekend of summer means for the rest of the summer.

Obviously, Iron Man will have an impressive debut. Will it be enough to set the latest Marvel adventure on a course to being profitable? Well, that's a different kettle of fish. How about a reported $186 million price tag for Iron Man? Eleven movies made $200 million last year, and four of those made $300 million. Less than half of the $200 million club from 2007 were original films or first installments of franchises. Honestly, I don't see a dozen $200 million movies this summer.

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One Leaves 'Nine': Javier Bardem Bows Out

Citing a hectic schedule of filming and publicity that culminated with countless red carpet miles walked this past awards season, Javier Bardem has stepped out of the lead role of the highly anticipated musical, Nine, which will be directed by Chicago's Rob Marshall.

Variety indicates that the cast of Nine will still feature Penelope Cruz, Marion Cotillard and Sophia Loren, so you've got to ask yourself, what gives, Bardem?

I can personally attest to his love of the project, however. When we spoke for No Country for Old Men, not only did the subject of Nine come up and not only was he incredibly excited to talk about it, but he also "practiced" for the role by singing in the halls of the Four Seasons hotel for all to hear. Seriously, anywhere you went that morning, you'd hear Javier Bardem singing showtunes.

He was signed on to play fictional movie director Guido Contini, who's trying to juggle his professional life and his personal life, which means he has lots of women issues.

If the setup sounds familiar, it's inspired by the Fellini classic, 8 1/2, hence the title, and you can include Nine among those films uprooted by the writers' strike. The script needed a little brushing up at the end of last year, when everyone was in place to start working on the film. Fast forward to the present and Bardem's people say he might take up to a year off to rest.

On the one hand, taking a lot of time off can help Bardem capitalize on his Oscar; freeing his schedule will surely let him pick and choose what he wants to do next. On the other hand, I think he's really going to regret skipping out on this musical. I have a hard time thinking a better role would come along for him anytime soon.