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Recommend Box Office - A Bad Weekend for Smith and Carrey (Email)

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Another flatter-than-expected weekend at the box office awaits us, as the Friday estimates would indicate that no movie will make as much as $20 million from Friday to Sunday. Box Office Mojo reports a fairly close race between Jim Carrey's Yes Man and Will Smith's Seven Pounds through one day, although it's more likely to widen between now and Monday morning.

Still, the way the numbers are now - Yes Man at about $6.5 million and Seven Pounds roughly a million bucks behind - suggests that neither film is really doing the kind of business anyone projected. If you extrapolate those numbers, Yes Man has a shot to get to $20 million, and I actually expect it to do better business today than yesterday, but it's not a guarantee by any means.

Will Smith, on the other hand, is looking at his worst debut since Ali opened to under $15 million seven years ago. Again, it will do slightly better today than yesterday, but with the Sunday drop-off, it will probably land on about $16 million by the time the receipts are counted.

We project both films to open over $20 million, with Yes Man in the $24 - $26 million range. I know this might be shocking, but there are a lot of films this fall that have received mixed to poor reviews and have then gone out and laid an egg at the box office. Coincidence? Or does it mean that, especially in a tough economy, people might be listening to critics?

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